K-12 public enrollment within KCPS boundaries decreased this school year, after several years of overall growth. Which grades lost enrollment?
After several years of growth in K-12 public enrollment within KCPS boundaries, overall enrollment declined this school year. Although KC Charter enrollment grew, this growth was outpaced by enrollment loss in our traditional public school system, KCPS.
We’re now at a 50/50 split between the two sectors for K-12 enrollment – one of the highest charter public market shares in the country. You can find this big picture analysis in my recent post, K-12 Enrollment, 2020-21 (Part 1).
My next few posts will dig deeper to try to understand where these losses and gains occurred. We’ll start by focusing on enrollment by grade level: that is, where (in which grades) did we gain and lose students in 2020-21? And, how does this compare to enrollment trends for those grades over the last 5 years?
We’ll focus on grades with overall enrollment loss, first.
Note: For the most part, KCPS and KC Charter public schools have been operating virtually this school year, with KCPS scheduled to return to school buildings in a limited fashion in late March/early April, and several charters now back in school on a hybrid basis. To my knowledge, Genesis Charter (K-8) is the only public school within KCPS boundaries that’s been fully open, serving students inside their school building, all school year.
Gains and losses in 2020-21
Let’s start with a chart.
This chart summarizes enrollment gains and losses by grade, by both sector and in total. Cells highlighted in yellow are enrollment losses, compared to the 2019-20 school year.
In grades K, 1, 4, 6 and 11 both KCPS and Charters lost enrollment, with both sectors incurring the biggest grade loss in Kindergarten.
What does enrollment in these grades look like over the last five years?
Kindergarten
Kindergarten Enrollment: -388 Students
- K enrollment is flat up until 2021; of all K-12 grades, it’s the most competitive between KCPS and charter schools
- 2021 represents a significant decrease compared to previous years for KCPS; at -306 students, Kindergarten attrition accounts for one-third of all KCPS enrollment loss in 2021
- From 2018 on – for four years – there have been more K students enrolled in charters than in KCPS. (This is the Kindergarten tipping point I wrote about back in 2016)
First Grade
First Grade Enrollment: -188 Students
- Similar to Kindergarten, first grade enrollment is also pretty competitive between KCPS and Charters
- KCPS had a steeper decline in first grade enrollment in 2021
- In 2021, we’re approaching the first grade tipping point, where there are nearly as many first graders in charter schools as in KCPS
- Overall, there are fewer first graders in public schools in 2021 than in 2017
Fourth Grade
Fourth Grade Enrollment: -126 Students
- There are fewer 4th graders in our public schools in 2021 than there were in 2017
- 4th grade KCPS enrollment has been declining since 2017, it’s grown slightly, overall, in the charter sector
- In 2021, we hit the 4th grade tipping point, with more 4th grade students in charter public schools than in KCPS schools
Sixth Grade
Sixth Grade Enrollment: -120 Students
- Until 2019, 6th grade enrollment was more competitive between KCPS and charters, when charter enrollment began to grow, and KCPS experienced a simultaneous decline
- Charter 6th grade enrollment was trending up until 2021
- Overall, there are more 6th graders enrolled in public schools in 2021 than in 2017
11th Grade
11th Grade Enrollment: -78 Students
- Unlike grades K, 1, 4, and 6, where there’s tight competition between KCPS and Charters for student enrollment, in Grade 11 KCPS has clear market dominance – there are significantly more 11th graders in KCPS high schools than there are in charter schools
- 11th grade charter enrollment grew until 2021, when it declined slightly
- Overall, there are more 11th grade students enrolled in 2021 than there were in 2017
A few take-aways
In 2021, we lost enrollment, overall, in five grades: K, 1, 4, 6, and 11. These are all grades in which enrollment, prior to 2021, had been steady or had slight growth (with the exception of Kindergarten, which was down 29 students overall in 2020).
In each of these grades, KCPS sustained bigger enrollment losses than did charter public schools.
The big questions: Where did these students go? Will they come back in the 2021-22 school year? And to what effect, on both student achievement and the overall system? For a good article on the impact of this year’s drop in Kindergarten enrollment on schools next year, read this recent Kansas City Star article).
That grades K and 1 enrollment are down isn’t really a surprise, as these are earlier grades where parents would be more inclined to keep their children home altogether (Kindergarten is not mandatory in the state of Missouri) or find another school with in-person learning – the burden of online learning is especially significant for families of younger students.
Because 6th grade is a transition year to middle school, parents and caregivers might feel particularly compelled to elect for a school, whether private or in another district, where school is in-person.
In 11th grade, students dropping out, or transferring to schools with in-person learning, are likely explanations. Sports could also be a consideration.
The decline in 4th grade enrollment is harder to explain.
Do you have any insights or new observations on the above grade-level analyses? Send an email, or leave a comment below.
Up next: Enrollment gains in 2021 – in which grades did we gain students, overall?
